This year the NBA witnessed a sea change. Gone are the defense-oriented years when virtually no team averaged 100 points. Thanks to changes implemented after last season to re-define what constitutes a defensive foul, up-tempo offenses have again flourished. The Phoenix Suns and Seattle SuperSonics are two of the best examples, reversing downward trends with returns to the playoffs and, in the Sun’s case, the league’s best regular season record.

     Portland Trail Blazer executives have noticed. And as the team faces a plethora of change in the days ahead—a new coach, the #3 draft pick, and a handful of departing free agents—it’s clear that the Blazers seek to join the trend toward up-tempo play.

     Building around Sebastian Telfair, a point guard who plays best in the open-court, the Blazers very well may find success with this new emphasis on the fast break and quick scores. What’s more, up-tempo play has a memorable history here. The classic early 1990s teams led by Clyde Drexler, Terry Porter, Jerome Kersey and company were known for pushing the ball up the hardwood with breakneck speed. It brought the Blazers two Western Conference championships and 1991’s best NBA regular season record.

     But I worry that even if the renewed up-tempo emphasis initially proves successful, it may ultimately represent a false hope—at least when it comes to winning a championship.

     Take a look at the two teams battling in this year’s NBA Finals: San Antonio and Detroit. Although players like the Spurs’ Tony Parker and Manu Ginobli or the Pistons’ Chauncey Billups and Tayshaun Prince certainly know how to push the ball, both franchises got to the promised land of the Finals by emphasizing defense and committing themselves to solid half-court play. A history of the NBA shows that teams who excel at up-tempo play often fare much better in the regular season than the finals. Of course there are exceptions, such as the Los Angeles Lakers of the 1980s. But the fate of the early 1990s Blazers is more common: The game frequently slows down come playoff-time, with defense tightening in a war of attrition.

     As with business, entertainment and countless other fields, success in the NBA breeds imitators. In today’s league, despite the success of teams like Detroit, the up-tempo flash of Phoenix and Seattle seem to be more of an influence, particularly given the rules changes that favor their style of play. But ask yourself: For all the fun we might have watching Telfair and company rack up points in the years ahead with a team led by the likes of Dwayne Casey or Mark Ivaroni, is this going to bring a championship?

     Even in a best-case scenario, an up-tempo style may only return the Trail Blazers to the role they occupied for much of the last twenty years:
often a playoff bridesmaid, but never championship bride.

-Brian Libby